Structural Analysis of National Governance and Policymaking Challenges and Opportunities by the Horizon of 2041

Document Type : reserch

Authors

1 Department of Future Studies, Faculty of Strategic Management, National Defense and Strategic Research University and Institute

2 Department of Futures Studies, Faculty of Governance, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

3 Faculty of Public Administration and Organizational Sciences, College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

4 Department of Management, School of Strategic Management, National Defense University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Governance is regarded as one of the fundamental pillars of sustainable development, and the effectiveness of political and social systems is profoundly influenced by its quality. In the current complex and multidimensional environment, the Islamic Republic of Iran faces deeply intertwined challenges as well as emerging opportunities, the analysis of which requires a systematic and future-oriented perspective. The purpose of this study is to identify and structurally analyze the most significant challenges and opportunities of governance by the horizon of 2041. The research is developmental–applied in nature, conducted through a qualitative foresight-oriented approach. Data were collected through a review of scientific documents and semi-structured questionnaires administered to nine experts in the fields of governance and policy-making. In the first stage, 88 factors were identified, of which 15 were finally selected as the key governance challenges. Structural analysis of these factors using MICMAC software revealed that issues such as erosion of social capital and public trust, reduced purchasing power and exchange rate instability and imported inflation are likely to become central concerns in the future of governance in Iran. These factors may be viewed both as threats and as potential opportunities for national development. Conversely, opportunities such as leveraging the capacities of the new generation of elites, advancement of emerging technologies, and rebuilding social capital could pave the way for the establishment of smart governance. The findings highlight the necessity of employing foresight-oriented approaches in policy-making to enable the formulation of anticipatory strategies and to mitigate potential instabilities within governance system.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Journal of Exalted Governance
Volume 6, Issue 3 - Serial Number 23
Vol. 6, No. 3, Autumn 2025
October 2025
Pages 1-37

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